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All of us want to know what will happen. We get depressed when we see bad things happening, one after another. When a couple of good things happen, then we feel like everything has turned around for the good. Our problem is simply that, like most humans, we project the past into the future in a straight line. Unfortunately, that’s a recipe for failure. No matter what we think is next, there’s a realistic chance that our wonderful (or awful) straight line will change. And if it doesn’t change today, tomorrow increases the chance that it will change.
So, we try to find predictors. And the most accessible ones are opinion polls. Trump’s approval is rising. That means that he will win. Biden’s approval is sliding. He’ll lose. And our confidence in those is misplaced. As the expression goes, in politics, two weeks is an eternity. Or, to quote the famous philosopher Yogi Berra, “Predictions are difficult, especially when they are about the future.”
My guest host for the last couple of weeks, Dr. Brian Joondeph, is here for a conversation on what polling can and can’t do. He also covers some of the pitfalls that the unwary won’t see when they are told that one candidate is “up” over another.
Along the way, we cover some of the endless political stories that the Left pushes to distract us from its failures.
Unleashed: The Political News Hour can be heard on weekdays at 7 pm ET on America Out Loud Talk Radio. Listen on iHeart Radio, our world-class media player, or our free apps on Apple, Android, or Alexa. All episodes of Unleashed! The Political News Hour can be found on podcast networks worldwide the day after airing on talk radio.
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